The Yankees lost out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers gave the 25-year-old pitcher a $325MM deal over 12 years ($27.08MM/yr). More on the details of the contract in a bit. The Mets offered the same amount, and the Yankees offered $300MM over 10 years ($30MM a year). There were other offers as well.
Included in the Dodgers offer was a $50MM signing bonus. I don’t know if the Mets or Yankees offered a signing bonus. But take out the signing bonus and it’s 12/$275, which is about $23MM/yr. On top of all that, the Dodgers are paying $50.6MM to the Orix Buffaloes, Yamamoto’s former team, as a posting fee.
Between Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto, and the extension the Dodgers gave to Tyler Glasnow after trading for Glasnow, the Dodgers have forked out almost $1.2 BILLION. That’s billion. With a B.
The Yankees made a competitive offer. 10 years, $300MM for a pitcher who hasn’t thrown a MLB pitch yet. His resume is superb. 3 straight Japanese pitching Triple Crowns, Sawamura (the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young) Awards, and 3 straight MVPs. People say Hal Steinbrenner is cheap, but really? That offer was very good and remember the posting fee would have been $45-50MM on top of that. The Yankees have Cole, Judge, Rodon and Stanton’s contracts, and who knows what Juan Soto, a free agent after this year, will command?
(A side note: I think one of the most important, if not THE most important key to the Yankees’ 2024 season is Rodon earning his 6/162 contract. He has to put up numbers like he did in 2021 and 2022. Last year was totally unacceptable.)
But 12 years for a pitcher. Heck, I am not even comfortable with the 10 the Yanks offered. I’m really not comfortable with anything over 6 (see Rodon). Imagine if, after 1963 and a 25-5, 1.88 MVP and CYA season, the Dodgers gave 27-year-old Sandy Koufax a 10-year deal. Well, we know what happened. Koufax injured himself in 1964 when he went 19-5, 1.74 and pitched the last two seasons of his career with an arthritic elbow. (With today’s technology not available back then, did he have a torn UCL?) Those two seasons, 1965 and 1966 were fabulous. 26-8, 2.04. 27-9, 1.73. Runner-up for MVP both years. CYA both years. Over 300 strikeouts both years. But then shortly before he turned 31, he was forced to retire because of the arm issues.
Let’s look at a more recent example. Tim Lincecum won back-to-back CYA in 2008 and 2009. In 2010, at the age of 26, he went 16-10, 3.43. In the next four years after that, he was 45-52 with an ERA of 4.18. He went 10-15, 5.18 at the age of 28 in 2012. In 2016, he went 2-6, 9.16 in 9 starts. He was finished at the age of 32.
You don’t know. You don’t know if Yamamoto will get through these 12 years without a problem and turn into a HOF. You don’t know if he will get TJ or lat surgery that will ruin his career. Giving 10 years or 12 years to a pitcher is insane.
Another example which hits Yankees’ fans right at home. Luis Severino. Enough said. We know his story. All-Star in 2017 and 2018. Only 24-years-old in 2018. Only 45 games since. 13-12, 4.47. 4-8, 6.65 last year.
As for Yamamoto’s choice, I read that he grew up a Dodgers fan but can’t confirm that. If so, his situation is like Gerrit Cole’s, who grew up a Yankee fan and that wish of playing for your childhood love would be difficult to overcome. Another thing I wonder about with Japanese (and Korean for that matter) players are demographics. I don’t have the numbers in front of me as to percentage of Asians in Southern California versus Asians in East Coast cities like NY, Boston, Philly or Baltimore. Plus, should you want to fly home to Japan, LA to Japan is a shorter flight than say, NY to Japan. Money talks, but there are other considerations to take into account.
I really don’t think Yamamoto had interest in the Mets other than to get them to drive up their price. And can Mets fans stop calling Steve Cohen “King” Cohen already? He’s been the owner for three years and his team has been under .500 twice. He gave big contracts to a couple of aged superstars nearing 40 (Scherzer and Verlander) only to dump them. He has a lot of money and can outbid practically everyone. But King Cohen? Please. Maybe one day. Not now.
Getting back to demographics. Buster Posey, the retired Giant catcher, mentioned that San Francisco has an image problem. Yeah. Who wants to play in a city with a reputation of homeless people with needles and feces on the street? Granted Yamamoto may never have experienced that part of the city, but image matters. You are not only offering a big contract and selling the team. You have to sell the city they are going to live in as well. The benefits of living there. Some states, like Texas and Florida, have no state income tax. NY and CA have higher taxes, so if they bid on a player, and are competing against say, Houston or Texas, that has to be taken into account. The number of Asian people in the area probably also comes into play as far as making the move as seamless as possible. For example, do you really think a Japanese player would sign with Detroit, no matter how much money Detroit may offer him? I don’t.
East coast teams, including the Yankees, have to find out how to deal with this. The Yankees have to figure out where they might have gone wrong with pursuing Yamamoto, and it could be that they did NOTHING wrong. You can say offer more money (after all, it is not ours) but that may not have worked. If a player wants to go somewhere and uses others just to drive up the price, and gets that price from his true love, there is nothing you can do about it.
As for the price, that is where as soon as the details of the Ohtani deal came out, with the deferred money, I knew the Yankees could be in trouble. In fact, I am a bit surprised that in the Yamamoto deal, there is no sign of deferred money. I figured that once Ohtani did that, that other teams would use that ploy in their own Yamamoto negotiations. But I wonder how that will play out in the next CBA. There is no rule against how much money or what percentage of a contract can be deferred, but no one in their right mind thought a player would get a $700MM deal over 10 years and defer $680MM of it so that his team could then reduce the AAV and luxury tax penalties. As I wrote in a previous post, legal? Yes. Ethical? No. It smells of (luxury) tax evasion. It’s something that I think must be rectified and I think it will be. Otherwise, what is a luxury tax or AAV for if you can just sidestep it like that?
The games at Yankee Stadium next June (and barring anything, I am going to the June 8 game) should be interesting between the Yankees and Dodgers, especially if Yamamoto is pitching. Heck, those games would have been sold out BEFORE the Dodgers got Ohtani and Yamamoto. I wonder if Yankee Stadium will turn into Tokyo East.
The Yamamoto sweepstakes put a hold on almost everything in MLB. This also, has to be rectified, and I’m not saying that just because of all the stupid trolling comments you saw on Twitter (It’s X but I still call it Twitter) or Facebook or other places. But other stars, especially pitching stars, have had their own decisions delayed because of the Yamamoto situation. Teams in on Yamamoto are now pivoting to Plan B. I expect a lot of dominoes to fall now, and quickly. But others, like 2x CYA winner Blake Snell, and playoff hero Jordan Montgomery, had to see if certain teams got Yamamoto and therefore are out on them. Also, they wanted to see what kind of contract Yamamoto received. Now that Yamamoto got what he got, without having pitched in the majors yet, and as great as he was in Japan, what will Snell, the current NL CYA winner, and winner of the award twice in HIS career, now demand?
I won’t get into what the Yankees’ plan B will be here. I’ll save that for another blog post, and I don’t get into rumors that much. Not unless the smoke has some significant fire attached to it. But we wait and see.
Another thing that flew under the radar is more proposed changes to the rules. Nope, they aren’t getting rid of that ghost runner rule that I hate. But 18 second clock with a man on base. Wider running lane to first base. And one I really don’t like—If a pitcher warms up before an inning starts, he has to be used in that inning. Personally, I think some of these rule changes will hurt pitcher’s arms. The MLB players’ union opposes these changes, but they are outnumbered by the committee. But these changes could be the cause for contention when the next CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) comes up. Who needs to see another lockout.
To close, initial estimates for Yamamoto were things like 8/200. 9/225. 7/210. One was as low as 5/125. Another 5/120.
No one expected 12/325. But then, no one thought 10/700 for Ohtani.
And everything I wrote above regarding Yamamoto? We could be seeing it again very soon with 22-year-old Roki Sasaki (rumor has it he wants to be a teammate of Yamamoto, and therefore Ohtani as well). What kind of bidding war would that be? Higher numbers because of inflation? How much money would the Dodgers have left to spend? You know Cohen and the Mets would be involved, the Yankees too (Gerrit Cole is 33 years old, and the Yanks will need to find a new ace). I wrote about Sasaki in a post just recently. Check that out. And not only those three (the usual suspects) but other teams are starting to increase and ramp up their scouting and pursuit of Japanese players. Toronto, Philadelphia, San Francisco (who just signed Korean star Lee), Boston (remember when they got Daisuke Matsuzaka?) Not only that but remember that Texas (Texas!) got Yu Darvish.
Did I want Yamamoto for the Yankees? Of course. Sasaki in the future? Yes. But at what price and risk?
Things look like they will get even crazier.
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